REFERENCE PROJECT

Monte-Carlo simulations of total costs for the later stages of the decommission project of two nuclear reactors in Sweden, O1 and O2.

Total cost was simulated using all known uncertainties for a clearance and deconstruction project for two nuclear reactors in Sweden. The purpose was to verify earlier estimations. 

Prerequisite for the work were:  

• Starting point: Buildings empty of components but no decontamination of building structures performed. 
• End point: All building rouble measured, removed from site and deposited or used as construction materials. 
• Usage of SMARTSIM, a previously proven cost-effective combination of statistical models for clearance of buildings. 
• Usage of site-specific values such as actual degree of contaminants in the buildings, nuclide vectors, location of the site and possible waste routes.

Cost was simulated showing dependencies between different work packages and a sensitivity analysis visualised the prize driving parameters. Result show how to avoid sub-optimizing in order to optimize the total cost. The result and the uncertainties were visualised with a curve of possible cost outcomes for different scenarios as shown in the Figure 1.